After a dramatic first weekend of finals we now have seen the back of Richmond and the Bulldogs and have a clearer view of just where everyone sits. Here’s the sides most likely to least likely to raise the premiership cup after the first week of finals.
1. Sydney
Clearly the most impressive team out of this weekend. Put in a commanding performance against the Dees and booked themselves a home preliminary final against either Freo or Collingwood. It’s very hard to see them getting beaten at the SCG and a grand final spot is probably theirs to lose.
From there they have the wood over both Geelong and Melbourne in recent times and that makes them the clear favourites to win the premiership. Look well balanced across the board and John Longmire has them flying at the business end of the season.
2. Geelong
Secured a home preliminary final by winning in week one of finals, which has often been where the Cats have come unstuck in recent years, but I still have doubts over their credentials in big finals. It could’ve very easily come unstuck for them against a spirited Collingwood side, and for a team that were so commanding in the home-and-away season, the same big-game frailties showed.
They had enough skill and character to get across the line, but will face the winner of Melbourne and Brisbane in two weeks’ time, and Melbourne in particular could cause them serious problems. A potential grand final against Sydney would also likely see them start outsiders, as the Swans have a brilliant record against the Cats.
Still, they are on track, and have the talent to win it all, it just remains to be seen whether they can conquer the mental demons of prelim final weekend.
Gary Rohan of the Cats celebrates a goal. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
3. Melbourne
A major dent to their chances of going back to back was dealt by the Swans on Friday night, but I’m not completely off the Demons bandwagon just yet. They were well beaten by the Swans, but face a Lions side that they have absolutely dominated in recent times. You’d expect them to bounce back strongly, and will certainly not give Lachie Neale the freedom that the Tigers gave him.
If they get past the Lions, as expected, they’ll fancy their chances against a Geelong side that they absolutely belted in the corresponding fixture last year. It’s a different path from last season, but they won’t need to leave Melbourne at all during the finals and it’s all very doable.
A potential rematch with Sydney in the grand final looms large, and they would back themselves to turn it around. Concerns over Christian Petracca’s leg injury, though, is a major worry.
4. Collingwood
Lost no admirers in their spirited loss to Geelong, and could’ve quite easily found themselves in a home preliminary final had things gone their way in the final moments, like they have done so many times before this year. They were always due to lose a close one at some point, and it just so happened to be in a final.
They do, however, thanks to Carlton, have the double chance and find themselves in a crunch semi-final against Freo. This is a genuine 50-50 game between two sides that were split by very little in the regular season.
The Pies got the better of Freo in a wet and soggy game earlier on in the year, and with the long range forecast suggesting rain next weekend, the Pies will certainly welcome it. If they get past Freo, however, it’s really difficult to see them beating Sydney, who comfortably accounted for them a couple of weeks ago up at the SCG.
The loss of Taylor Adams, however, looms large as a potential fork in the road for the Pies’ progression.
5. Fremantle
Flagmantle is still alive! It was on life support early on in the second quarter against the Bulldogs but the Dockers showed serious spirit to turn a 41-point deficit into a 13-point win in front of a delirious home crowd at Optus Stadium.
They go into a semi-final against Collingwood with a very real chance of progressing, considering their form on the road, particularly in Melbourne, has been nothing short of outstanding and they’ll take huge confidence out of that.
What they cannot afford to do is give the Pies a head start like they did against the Bulldogs and GWS a couple of weeks prior, they won’t be given the same generosity from a hardened Pies side. I can, however, see them winning this one, particularly if the wet weather stays away.
What’s harder to see is them getting past the next hurdle, Sydney at the SCG, a ground that they barely ever win at.
6. Brisbane
Won a dramatic shootout against the Tigers, and Chris Fagan finally got that win in a final that involved elimination.
Joe Daniher of the Lions celebrates the winning goal against Richmond. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
They now turn their attention towards a team that has absolutely dominated them in recent times. Just two weeks ago they got belted by 58 points at the hands of the Dees, and earlier on this season it was 64 points. That form line gives them very little hope this weekend against Melbourne.
If they can turn the tables on the Demons they then would face Geelong in a prelim, a team that they have had some tight battles with over the last few seasons, but would also start as heavy underdogs in that game.
It’s fair to say that the Lions are far and away the biggest outsider for the flag from here, but perhaps less expectation of success may be healthy in propelling the Lions further into the finals than anyone expects. Most people didn’t even give them much of a chance of beating Richmond, and yet here they are!