The Roosters have risen to sixth on differential ahead of the Rabbitohs and Broncos while ninth-placed Canberra are still in contention to knock one of them out of the playoff equation after their unconvincing victory in Newcastle on Sunday.
Careers are on the line for players, coaches and administrators as the 16 NRL teams jockey for position over the closing weeks of the schedule.
And a few of them did their future employment prospects plenty of harm with a series of lopsided scorelines making for the biggest average winning margin in the NRL era of 32.25 points. The total of 466 points was also the highest since the advent of eight-match rounds in 2007.
Premiers Penrith clinched the minor premiership on Thursday and will be presented with the JJ Giltinan Shield at BlueBet Stadium this Friday at their final home game of the season against the Warriors.
(Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
South Sydney’s loss to the Panthers was a major blow for them in the context of the finals race – the Rabbitohs have dropped to seventh with the Eels and Roosters overtaking them with their respective thrashings of the Bulldogs and Wests Tigers.
For-and-against records are likely to come into play in deciding final rankings – the Raiders have closed the gap on the Broncos to 46 on that front in the race for eighth, mainly due to Brisbane’s 60-12 shellacking to the Storm.
The Sharks and Titans share the easiest run home with the Cowboys facing the toughest schedule. In working out the strength of schedule for each team in the closing rounds, it is calculated by a tally of the remaining opposition’s current competition points on the ladder.
The best/worst case scenario for each team is based on the best possible mathematical outcome – basically if they won both their remaining games and the other results go that team’s way to the optimal degree.
| Team | Strength of schedule |
| Titans | 28 (easiest) |
| Sharks | 28 (easiest) |
| Raiders | 30 (3rd) |
| Dragons | 38 (4th) |
| Sea Eagles | 40 (5th) |
| Knights | 44 (6th) |
| Panthers | 48 (7th) |
| Tigers | 48 (7th) |
| Warriors | 50 (9th) |
| Broncos | 52 (10th) |
| Bulldogs | 54 (11th) |
| Storm | 58 (12th) |
| Eels | 60 (13th) |
| Roosters | 60 (13th) |
| Rabbitohs | 62 (15th) |
| Cowboys | 68 (16th) |
The run home for each team
1. Penrith (1st, 40 points, +302 differential)
Run home: Rd 24 Warriors (H), Rd 25 Cowboys (A).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 1st. They are the minor premiers and deservedly so.
Strength of schedule: 48 (7th easiest)
Predicted finish: 1st. Locked in.
2. North Queensland (34pts, +252)
Run home: Rd 24 Rabbitohs (A), Rd 25 Panthers (H).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 2-4. The Cowboys are guaranteed a top-four berth now but could still slip to third or even fourth.
Strength of schedule: 68 (Toughest)
Predicted finish: 3rd. With the minor premiership wrapped up, Penrith will probably rest a few stars in the final round, opening the door for the Cowboys to clinch second. If they lose to Souths or Penrith in the final rounds, or Cronulla will all but certainly take second spot.
3. Cronulla (34pts, +171)
Run home: Rd 24 Bulldogs (H), Rd 25 Knights (A).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 2-5
Strength of schedule: 28 (Easiest)
Predicted finish: 2nd. They have a soft schedule and are primed to leapfrog the Cowboys to sneak into the top two.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
4. Melbourne (32pts, +259)
Run home: Rd 24 Roosters (H), Rd 25 Eels (A).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 2-7.
Strength of schedule: 58 (12th easiest)
Predicted finish: 4th. They are still not sure things to make the top four with the winner of their final clash with Parramatta set to decide who gets it. They will probably miss the top two in what will be their lowest regular-season placing since 2015 – that’s how successful the Storm machine has been in recent years.
5. Parramatta (30pts, +64)
Run home: Rd 24 Broncos (A), Rd 25 Storm (H).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 3-9
Strength of schedule: 60 (9th easiest)
Predicted finish: 6th. They are still more likely to be doing it the hard way in the finals from the bottom half of the bracket. You’d back them to beat Brisbane but not get the Storm.
6. Sydney (26pts, +187)
Run home: Rd 24 Storm (A), Rd 25 Rabbitohs (H).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 4-9.
Strength of schedule: 60 (13th easiest)
Predicted finish: 5th. Six straight wins have not only enhanced the Roosters’ chances of sneaking into the eight but mean they could jag fourth if the Storm slip up. The final round against the Rabbitohs at the new Allianz Stadium opening match will have a major bearing on both the playoff destiny of both teams.
(Photo by Scott Gardiner/Getty Images)
7. South Sydney (28pts, +134)
Run home: Rd 24 Cowboys (H), Rd 25 Roosters (A).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 4-9.
Strength of schedule: 62 (15th easiest)
Predicted finish: 7th. They have a tough draw to overcome to ensure their playoff spot – the loss to Penrith has closed the door on a potential sneak into fourth unless they win both, the Storm lose both and a 130-point differential is overcome.
8. Brisbane (28pts, +21)
Run home: Rd 24 Eels (H), Rd 25 Dragons (A).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 5-9.
Strength of schedule: 52 (10th easiest)
Predicted finish: 8th. Their season is on the line against Parra this week – if they lose they should still retain eighth ahead of Canberra on for and against with a big win over the Dragons in the final round. They have improved significantly after collecting the wooden spoon two years ago and placing 14th last year.
| Team | Best-worst finish |
| 1. Penrith | 1 |
| 2. North Qld | 2-4 |
| 3. Cronulla | 2-5 |
| 4. Melbourne | 2-7 |
| 5. Parramatta | 3-9 |
| 6. Sydney | 4-9 |
| 7. South Sydney | 4-9 |
| 8. Brisbane | 5-9 |
| 9. Canberra | 6-10 |
| 10. St George Illawarra | 9-11 |
| 11. Manly | 10-11 |
| 12. Canterbury | 12-15 |
| 13. New Zealand | 12-16 |
| 14. Newcastle | 12-16 |
| 15. Gold Coast | 12-16 |
| 16. Wests | 12-16 |
9. Canberra (26pts, -25)
Run home: Rd 24 Sea Eagles (H), Rd 25 Tigers (A).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 6-11.
Strength of schedule: 30 (3rd easiest)
Predicted finish: 9th. The Green Machine can still sneak in if they win their last two games and they don’t have any higher-ranked teams on their schedule. But the question remains if they can be relied upon to complete a run of four straight wins to make the eight and whether they can bridge the for-and-against gap.
(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
10. St George Illawarra (20pts, -132)
Run home: Rd 24 Tigers (A), Rd 25 Broncos (H).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 9-11.
Strength of schedule: 38 (4th easiest)
Predicted finish: 10th. With a relatively soft draw to finish the season, the Dragons should have been challenging for a playoff spot but despite their win over the Titans on Sunday, 10th spot is their best-case scenario.
11. Manly (20pts, -62)
Run home: Rd 24 Raiders (A), Rd 25 Bulldogs (A).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 10-11.
Strength of schedule: 40 (5th easiest)
Predicted finish: 11th. Five straight losses and the Sea Eagles are petering out with no pride in their jersey.
12. Canterbury (14pts, -177)
Run home: Rd 24 Sharks (A), Rd 25 Sea Eagles (H).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 11-14
Strength of schedule: 54 (11th easiest)
Predicted finish: 12th. Their recent form under interim coach Mick Potter had been a breath of fresh air, but back-to-back heavy defeats suggest the players are ready for their holidays.
(Photo by Matt Blyth/Getty Images
13. New Zealand (14pts, -257)
Run home: Rd 24 Panthers (A), Rd 25 Titans (H).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 12-16
Strength of schedule: 50 (9th easiest)
Predicted finish: 13th. Let’s Gone Warriors? This season is long gone and poor old Stacey Jones not only inherited a basket case, he’s been passed over for the opportunity to turn them around next year despite being a club legend who’s done the hard yards as an assistant coach.
14. Newcastle (14pts, -258)
Run home: Rd 24 Titans (A), Rd 25 Sharks (H).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 12-16
Strength of schedule: 44 (6th easiest)
Predicted finish: 14th. They have not beaten any of the top-eight sides all year and are unlikely to rise any higher than their current predicament.
15. Gold Coast (10pts, -216)
Run home: Rd 24 Knights (H), Rd 25 Warriors (A).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 12-16.
Strength of schedule: 28 (Easiest)
Predicted finish: 15th. Avoiding the spoon and the sack are the two main missions for Justin Holbrook. They have Newcastle and the Warriors on the schedule but dodging the spoon may not be enough to save the coach’s skin.
16. Wests (10pts, -279)
Run home: Rd 24 Dragons (H), Rd 25 Raiders (H).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 11-16
Strength of schedule: 48 (7th easiest)
Predicted finish: 16th. Caretaker coach Brett Kimmorley needs to jag a couple of upsets to ensure the wooden spoon won’t be housed at Concord after Round 25.
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