It’s finals time baby! The best of the best are battling it out to book their ticket for the first Sunday in October.
But before we jump into week one of the finals, we better have a look at what happened last week to get us here.
Let’s recap –
Thursday night saw the Eels secure two bites of the finals cherry after beating the Storm 22-14 and taking out fourth spot. Melbourne dropped to fifth and now have the unfamiliar feeling of no second chances.
The Sea Eagles went down to the Bulldogs 21-20 on Friday night, despite leading 16-0 after 20 minutes. Both teams are now done, and Manly can finally put this season behind them – and enjoy all the off-field drama they seem to be clouded in now.
Then we headed out to the brand-new Allianz Stadium for another chapter in the book of grudge matches between the Roosters and the Rabbitohs. The tricolours took home bragging rights with a 26-12 victory, and now get to host their old friends in week one of the finals.
On Saturday we travelled across the ditch to watch a game with no impact on the finals but turned out to be quite exciting. Trailing the Warriors 26-12 with eight minutes left on the clock, the Titans managed to draw level and forced the game into golden point. A Tanah Boyd field goal gave the Titans a 27-26 win that broke the hearts of the Warriors’ home crowd.
Gold Coast Titans (Photo by Dave Rowland/Getty Images)
In the second Saturday game at Kogarah, the Broncos were fighting for survival. They were holding on to one last roll of the dice to make the eight against a Dragons side just playing for pride. Anyone would have thought it was the other way around, with Brisbane seemingly doing everything they could to lose. Which they did. 22-12.
We then headed up to Townsville to see the Cowboys host the Under 9’s Panthers. The home side cruised to a 38-8 win but the Penrith boys that played showed a lot of heart. It was a huge experience for the young guys, with some who had never even been to Queensland before. The win gave the Cowboys hope of securing second spot, all they needed was the Knights to beat the Sharks the next day.
Which, of course, we didn’t. It was 12-all at halftime, but then of course we came back out in the second half like we normally do, and Cronulla blew us off the park 38-16. The Sharks took out second spot and my boys got ready for mad Monday.
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Then we had the last game of the regular season, and one the Tigers would love to quickly forget. A 56-10 thumping at the hands of the Raiders was not how the Tigers would have wanted to thank the Leichardt Oval crowd. The Raiders had already secured the eighth spot thanks to the Brisbane brain explosion, this was just icing on the cake.
AJ somehow tipped the Titans and Dragons, earning him 7/8. Mary and you legends in the crowd tipped 6/8, Paul tipped 5/8 with Mike and I out the back with 4/8.
This means another lead change! AJ is back out in front on 142, with Paul just behind on 141. Mary and the Crowd are on 137, Mike is in fourth on 125 and I’m hanging out with my LIV golf buddies on 112.
And then, there were eight. Let’s check out what we have in store for the first week of finals.
We head out to BlueBet Stadium for the battle of the west between the Panthers (1st) and the Eels (4th) at 7.50pm. The last time these two met, Penrith’s favourite son Nathan Cleary was sent off for a dangerous tackle on Eels five-eight Dylan Brown. His five-week suspension has now come to an end, and Cleary returns with many of his friends who enjoyed a nice rest last week.
Nathan Cleary. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Parramatta has beaten Penrith in both their encounters this season and will be looking to do it again so they can enjoy a week off. Will it be third time lucky for the Panthers, or a trifecta for the Eels?
On Saturday we begin our double header down at AAMI Park, where the Storm (5th) host the Raiders (8th) in our first elimination match of the finals. Melbourne will be angry that they are in this situation, while Canberra will be out to prove they are not just making up numbers.
One will make it through, and the other heads to Flight Centre to book the end of season trip to Bali. Who will we be saying goodbye to?
We then make our way to a packed-to-the-rafters PointsBet Stadium to watch the Sharks (2nd) and the Cowboys (3rd) fight it out for the right to a week off. Cronulla seems to have come out of nowhere to finish the season close to the top, while the Cowboys are the surprise packet with many at the start of the year tipping them for the spoon.
The Sharks beat the Cowboys in the 2016 prelim to make it to the grand final. The Cowboys did it back to the Sharks in the same game the following year. To add to the drama between these two, Chad Townsend comes up against his old club, and he is expected to receive a frosty reception from the Sharks crowd. But will he get the last laugh and head back home with the win?
On Sunday we are back out to Allianz Stadium for the second elimination final between the Roosters (6th) and the Rabbitohs (7th). The Roosters come into this game with a win against Souths last week. They will be looking to repeat that while Souths will be out for revenge.
This grudge match is always a beauty, but it will mean so much more after one of these arch-rivals is forced to hang up the boots after the game. Will it be rabbit stew or fried chicken for dinner?
Ok, onto the tipsters. I’m going to let our new leader AJ lead us off this week.
If you would like to see how you go up against the Experts this round, just remember to get your tips in below by 5:00pm tonight to be counted in The Crowd’s tips.
Good luck with your tipping everyone!
AJ Mithen
Panthers, Raiders, Cowboys, Roosters,
Back on top, as it should be and as it will remain. Like all true champions, my run to tipping glory is timed to perfection as all alleged contenders crack under pressure. Here’s who to tip this weekend.
I tip Penrith because Parramatta are in the ‘show me’ category when it comes to withstanding finals pressure. Penrith will be all but full strength and their defence is the rock, but they’ll need to score more than 12 to get past the Eels.
Your presumptive champions, the people’s team, the Canberra Raiders will move on from laying a casual 56 on the Tigers to laying a casual 56 on the hapless, floundering Melbourne Storm for their fifth straight win at the Canberra Rectangular Stadium aka AAMI Park.
Hudson Young Raiders (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
I’m keen on the Sharks but I’ve gotta go the ‘upset’ when they welcome the Far Northerners. Both teams are in decent form, the Cowboys’ backline is better, both teams match up well defensively and the Sharks will be super dependent on a strong game from their halves. So, the Cowboys to win, but no surprise if the Sharks get it done.
Roosters v Bunnies will be a belter, but I can’t see Souths getting past the ‘wall of feathers’ enough times to win. Roosters are better in most positions and will win reasonably comfortably, like a score and a half or so.
Mary Konstantopoulos
Eels, Raiders, Sharks, Rabbitohs.
As I said last week, come this time of the year I start tipping with my heart and not with my head. This first game should be an absolute belter, with Penrith close to full strength for the first time in weeks. I’m tipping the Eels because they are my team and I genuinely think this is a team that can beat the Panthers for a third time this year.
The Raiders are going into the finals as underdogs but could not have hoped for a better first week assignment. The Raiders are a hoodoo team for the Storm and have beaten them several times. There are whispers Jahrome Hughes may not be fit, which would give the Raiders a further boost.
With a home ground advantage, the Sharks will beat the Cowboys and the Rabbitohs will beat the Chookies. With the return of Campbell Graham, Cameron Murray and Damien Cook, Souths will look a different team. It’s also extremely unlikely that Latrell Mitchell will have two off games in a row.
Mike Meehall Wood
Panthers, Storm, Sharks, Roosters
Panthers to win. It might be close but given that Brad Arthur said “there’s no second chances” on 9 News Wednesday night when he quite literally gets a second chance by dint of finishing fourth, I’m going to go for Ivan Cleary to get the win.
The Raiders are Melbourne’s bogey team at AAMI Park, right? They’ve won on 7 of their 12 visits there, including not that long ago on their run home to the finals. Well, that might be so but if you follow this column, you’ll know I’m a Melbourne in Melbourne man. Storm to take it.
The dusty confines, the wind coming in off the water, Buzz Rothfield, err, buzzing around the ET Stand. There’s nothing like Shark Park. Alright, there’s lots of rubbish, too small stadiums out there. Nevertheless, I’d tip whichever of these two teams were at home and the Sharks are, so Up, Up Cronulla from me.
The non-dusty, non-windy, less homely confines of the SFS on Sunday should be a belter. The head says Roosters, because they won fairly convincingly last week, the heart says Bunnies, because I like the idea of being right when everyone was saying they were rubbish. Did I mention that I always thought they were good? OK, at a push, and in a close one, Chooks.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Paul Suttor
Panthers, Storm, Sharks, Rabbitohs
Panthers will exact revenge for their two losses to Parramatta during the regular season.
Melbourne won’t do it easy but should outlast Canberra at home.
Cronulla and the Cowboys will be the lowest scoring match and the Sharks will just get the win.
Souths are primed to upset the Roosters with Latrell Mitchell player of the match
Danielle Smith
Eels, Storm, Cowboys, Roosters
What a game to kick off the finals! Absolutely no logic in this, I just think Parra can do it.
This was my back-and-forth tip, and even after picking one it I’m still not sure. Hmmm…..Storm.
Cowboys for the win and Townsend to kick the winning field goal!
OMG! This one will be sensational! The Roosters did it last week, and I think the Chooks will do it here again.
| Finals Week 1 | AJ | Danielle | Mary | Mike | Paul | Crowd |
| PEN V PAR | PEN | PAR | PAR | PEN | PEN | ? |
| MEL V CAN | CAN | MEL | CAN | MEL | MEL | ? |
| CRO V NQL | NQL | NQL | CRO | CRO | CRO | ? |
| SYD V SOU | SYD | SYD | SOU | SYD | SOU | ? |
| Last Round | 7 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Total | 142 | 112 | 137 | 125 | 141 | 137 |
James Graham’s tips courtesy of the Bye Round Preview Podcast
Penrith Panthers $1.41 v Parramatta Eels $2.45
Friday 7.50pm, BlueBet Stadium
“I’ve got to fancy the Penrith Panthers on this one, but I think it will be tight.”
Melbourne Storm $1.41 v Canberra Raiders $2.95
Saturday 5.40pm AAMI Park
“I think Melbourne will get a comfortable victory. The Raiders, I admire their efforts, but I think Melbourne will have too much for them.”
Cronulla Sharks $1.70 v North Queensland Cowboys $2.15
Saturday 7.50pm PointsBet Stadium
“This is just going to be fascinating game two teams that love to throw the ball about, their attacking styles are very similar. But I’ve got to go the Sharks, I think the Sharks will get them.”
Sydney Roosters $1.60 v South Sydney Rabbitohs $2.35
Sunday 4.05pm, Allianz Stadium
“Now that the back three of the Roosters is set, they were already looking strong on the weekend without Tupou and Suaalii, but I think that just gives you the Roosters that the slight edge. The Roosters should have enough.”