Richmond the biggest loser and stand at the edge of a cliff

Richmond was the biggest loser from the spectacular first week of finals.

Collingwood lost not a single admirer in their gallant loss to Geelong, and in fact gained many. Melbourne get another chance, against a team they beat up on for fun. The Bulldogs were never doing anything this finals series anyway.

The Tigers were the only team that could realistically mount a charge to the flag from outside the top four, especially given that if they’d won, every remaining game on their half of the draw is at the MCG.

And of course, off the back of a three premiership dynasty, every season has all eyes on them, ready to declare the era over.

So, where to from here?

It is abundantly clear what the internal plan is for the Tigers – to build and maintain a Geelong and Sydney-like longevity of finals appearances and contention.

The Swans have missed the finals five times since 1996, making it 22 times in 27 seasons for two flags from six grand finals.

Geelong have missed the finals five times this century, and only once since their premiership in 2007. Much has been made of their inability to win finals, but they contend all the time.

The Tigers are building a record that is a sneaky chance to match the above. It’s easy to forget they finished fifth on the ladder as far back as 2013, missing top four by half a game. They won nine in a row to make finals in 2014, and finished fifth again in 2015, with 15 wins.

While the three premierships are rightly celebrated, they have actually been on the edge of contention for a decade now. As they say though, it can be easier to get to the top than stay there.

It seems inevitable that Jack Riewoldt, 34 the next time he kicks a footy, and Trent Cotchin, turning 33 in the first month of next season, will get one-year contracts for 2023. Many thought this might have been their last year, but they’ve shown they can go around one more time at reduced terms, which opens the salary cap up for their club to acquire seasoned talent.

One thing Richmond has done well, potentially learning lessons from the most recent dynasty of Hawthorn, has stagger retirements of their grand veterans while not having them suffer the ignominy of playing a sad season or two at places like West Coast, Brisbane and Melbourne.

Bachar Houli and David Astbury retired at the end of last season, with three premiership medals apiece. And this year, at various stages, Josh Caddy, Kane Lambert and Shane Edwards have called it a day with eight flags between them.

That will leave, apart from Riewoldt and Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Dylan Grimes, Dion Prestia, Tom Lynch, Marlion Pickett, and Robbie Tarrant as the players older than 30 in Round 1 next year.

Lynch and Pickett are both coming off arguably career-best seasons, but there are genuine concerns about the others as injury and age start to catch up. If they are managed appropriately they shouldn’t make up more than a third of any Richmond team that takes the field in 2023.

The Tigers have been making headlines in recent days for being heavily into Tim Taranto, with talk of a seven-year deal. He makes a lot of sense.

He profiles similarly to Prestia when Richmond traded to get him out of the Suns. Prestia was 24 at the time, as Taranto is now. Prestia had played 95 games in six seasons, Taranto is at 114 from his six. They are both clearance kings with knocks on their disposal.

The Tigers are renowned as a low-possession, high-territory team that don’t rely on pinpoint passing and precise ball movement. Taranto will strengthen them in an area they are weak, and his perceived weaknesses won’t cost them as it might at other clubs.

It’s hard to think that Richmond could also land Jacob Hopper, and you’d have to wonder how they could do it. But they fact they are trying to pull off the double, and may have the draft currency to do it, suggests they are certainly interested in trading to stay in contention.

They are also not mortgaging their future.

The Tigers took five players in the top 30 at last year’s draft and had three teenagers playing their first final last weekend – Josh Gibcus, Maurice Rioli Jr and Tyler Sonsie, plus 21-year-olds in Jack Ross and Noah Cumberland.

Geelong and Sydney are market leaders in how to regenerate without bottoming out, and we see them both in preliminary finals this year.

Geelong keeps bringing in experienced players, but have also found ways to get in different types of talent. Tom Atkins and Brad Close, and Max Holmes and Sam De Koning couldn’t have had more opposite paths to AFL footy – the first two were mature age recruits that were still on the rookie list at the start of this season, the other pair were first-round picks that are yet to play 30 games.

Sydney have found the right way to blend experience at talent, forming an incredibly potent mix. They had nine players aged 22 or under in the side that beat Melbourne, complemented by the outstanding middle age bracket of Luke Parker, Callum Mills, Isaac Heeney and Tom Papley, as well as the experience of Buddy Franklin, journeyman Tom Hickey, Dane Rampe and Sam Reid.

There aren’t many right ways to do, and lots of wrong.

Richmond are right on the precipice, and it’s going to go one way or the other. Based on the last ten years, you’d have to back the club in.

CLICK HERE for a seven-day free trial to watch the AFL on KAYO