Wole Ogundare, a business advice expert, asserted on Saturday that when the estimated GDP growth rate is compared to the population growth rate, President Bola Tinubu’s 2024 budget proposal does not inspire hope.
In an interview with Channels TV, Ogundare called the appropriation a “budget of coasting along.”
Any budget that has hope, according to him, will have a GDP growth rate of between 7% and 10%.
Ogundare said, “When you look at the assumptions, the first thing I typically look at is the growth rate. So the macroeconomic framework tends to force you to look at the growth rate. The President projected a 3.76 growth rate; if you look at that growth rate, how does it really make sense?
“You compare it to the population growth rate in Nigeria. Our population growth rate today is about 2.5, so if you look at a 2.5 population growth rate relative to a 3.76 GDP growth, it tells you immediately that this is not a budget of hope, it is a budget of coasting along. Let us just coast along for now.
“Any budget of hope will be something where the growth rate is about 7 to 10 per cent. So, I guess the guys in charge are being very careful not to overestimate their position, which is why they say, ’ Look, let us just coast along’. So anything around hope, forget it; Nigerians should just forget it for now because there is nothing hopeful around it.”
He further stated that the 2024 budget is far from the budget that will end most of the economic problems facing Nigeria at the moment.
Ogundare stated, “This is not the budget for me that will reduce the japa syndrome; it is not the budget that will also create some huge industrialisation or human capital, massive development, or a budget that can encourage employment—none of those things. This is just let’s coast along for now and all the indicators seem to speak to this.”
Johnson Chukwu, the managing director of Cowry Asset Management Ltd., also spoke on the program. He bemoaned the ongoing rise in recurrent spending and said the proposed budget is not much that different from previous ones.
Chukwu said, “We have not seen any strategic initiative that will bring down recurrent expenditure. We have seen a consistent increase in the recurrent expenditure of the government because the structure on which you incur recurrent expenditure is being expanded.”
